Has the winter storm shifted north? Models conflict going into weekend

Has the winter storm shifted north? Models conflict going into weekend

Irene Wright, USA TODAY

Thu, January 22, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC

3 min read

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There is no doubt that a winter storm — and a serious one — is headed for Georgia this weekend, but models differ on how serious the impacts could be, and whether the state will see ice or just some rain and cold.

Meteorologists say this type of storm is historically hard to model, so estimates on how much rain or ice Georgia could realistically experience vary depending on which model is used.

Earlier in the week, most models suggested severe ice impacts all the way to central Georgia, but some models at midweek show the storm shifting north.

Here's what we know.

How much ice could North Georgia see?

One example of model variance is in the measure of anticipated ice build up in North Georgia.

The "Euro model," referring to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) weather model, shows that Atlanta may only get 0.1 inches of ice buildup. This is enough to cause disruptions and some power outages, but less likely to cause widespread destruction. In this model, placed like Canton, Gainesville and Cumming will see more ice, nearly an inch.

The "GFS model," referring to Global Forecast System, however, has much higher estimates. According to this model, Atlanta could see nearly an inch of ice buildup, and the area around Lake Lanier could see more than an inch, with a much higher damage potential.

Meteorologist Ella Dorsey, with WANF, shared the two models side by side as of 7:30 a.m. on Thursday.

"Trends in the guidance, particularly the European model, towards a warmer event have received quite a bit of attention in the last 24 hours," longtime Georgia meteorologist Glenn Burns said Thursday morning. "While these trends are potentially positive as they would support a rapid erosion of the wedge and less widespread ice accumulation in Georgia, they represent only a portion of the guidance."

Bitter cold could follow wet weekend

Burns says the models also show that Monday could be extremely cold in Georgia, meaning if ice or snow builds up over the weekend, it may be some time before the temperature warms enough for it to start to melt and make roads drivable again.

The National Weather Service issues a Winter Storm Watch for many North Georgia counties, but the watch has not extended south to the Atlanta metro — yet.

"A southward expansion of the Winter Storm Watch may occur as confidence increases," NWS Atlanta said on Thursday.

Kemp declares State of Emergency

Governor Brian Kemp declared a State of Emergency for all of Georgia Thursday morning.

The declaration will last for seven days, but can be extended if the situation requires, according to a news brief with the Georgia Emergency Management Agency. The governor called up 500 Georgia National Guard soldiers, will launch the State Operations Center to coordinate state, local and federal resources beginning Saturday morning, and said the Georgia Department of Transportation would start treating roads north of I-20 starting Friday night into Saturday.

Irene Wright is the Atlanta Connect reporter with USA Today’s Deep South Connect team. Find her on X @IreneEWright or email her at ismith@usatodayco.com.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Winter storm updates for the Atlanta area as models shift north

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