Mining stocks have been on a tear, with gold passing $5,000. Analysts are split on what's next

Mining stocks have been on a tear, with gold passing $5,000. Analysts are split on what's next

Published Wed, Jan 28 2026

1:00 AM EST

Key Points

• Investors have been bullish on mining stocks, led by gold and silver's surges.
• However, appetite has cooled over the past six months, according to a Citi note that shows 'Buy' ratings have dipped.
• The sector rally "looks a little bit unsustainable in the short term," according to Panmure Liberum strategist Joachim Klement.

In this article

• FMG-AU
• VALE-BR
• BHP-AU
• C
• FRES-GB
• RIO-GB
• CTRN
• GIS

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Mining stocks have been on a tear, with multiple metals repeatedly smashing records, but analysts are split on whether it will continue.

Gold futures for February hit a record of $5,100 per ounce on Sunday and silver futures for March reached a high of $115.5 per ounce the following day. Investors tend to flock to gold in uncertain times as it's seen as a safe-haven, and silver tends to track the yellow metal.

Copper has also advanced significantly since August, after prices fell dramatically, though this is likely driven by electrification and demand from hardware that copper is used in.

iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF hit an all-time high at $59.58 on Monday. Rio Tinto, which is in talks to acquire Glencore, hit its highest point since March 2021 on the same day; and Fresnillo's stock price has skyrocketed over the past year to reach a record high of $4,448. Antofagasta also advanced to an all-time peak.

"We've seen mining stocks in particular really at the races. I think that continues to be a defensive play in markets," Rory McPherson, investment chief at Wren Sterling, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Jan. 26.

U.K. miners in particular are "still very underowned stocks," he said, which can help drive the price up.

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The scale of the rally has cast doubt as to whether precious metals are a defense play, however.

"Given their inherent cyclicality, I wouldn't describe mining stocks as defensive at the best of times. And this is even less the case now given the general bullishness in the mining space led by gold and other precious metals, copper and aluminium," Jon Mills, an analyst who covers global miners for Morningstar, told CNBC over email.

On top of fervor around gold, aluminium and copper, the iron ore price remains strong at around $105 per metric ton, Mills said, noting that iron ore is the biggest earnings driver for many of the larger miners including BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale, and Fortescue.

"In terms of smaller metals, silver is also at historical highs, while platinum has slightly retreated from recently achieving an all-time high. Even lithium has substantially recovered in recent months after falling to cyclical lows in 2025," he added.

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However, appetite for mining stocks has cooled over the past six months, according to a Citi note released on Jan. 26. Buy ratings dipped from above 70 to 60 over that time frame and Neutral and Sell ratings are up, the investment banks' Ephrem Ravi wrote.

He sees three reasons for the change in sentiment. "Most of the miners are iron ore heavy and iron ore prices have remained rangebound," Ravi said. Big miners' share prices are up around 20% to 50% over the past six months, which is primarily led by higher copper and aluminum, he added. As such, valuations have been pushed up, making the investment case less attractive.

That said, Citi maintains a bullish near-term view for gold due to heightened geopolitical risks, supply shortages, and continuing uncertainty over the independence of the Federal Reserve in the face of President Donald Trump's pressure.

"Precious metals miners in particular "have become incredibly expensive," Panmure Liberum strategist Joachim Klement told "Squawk Box Europe" on Jan. 27.

"They've rallied a lot based on this gold and silver rally, which to me looks a little bit unsustainable in the short term," he said.

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